What terrible things will Trump do?

Politics

[View here as a Twitter thread]

A friend said she’s worried about what terrible things Trump will do, now that he’s backed into a corner and desperate to hold on to power. It seems to me we know what he’s going to do—because he’s already doing it.

1/ If you’re worried about a bloody revolution, don’t be. Bloody revolutions are very 20th century. Modern authoritarians have a better way: They undermine democratic institutions. They create a world in which facts don’t matter. They badger the institutions until they weaken.

2/ Trump thinks he will beat Mueller. (He won’t. But he thinks he will.)  has said repeatedly that Trump thinks he’s “got this.” His plan: Torpedo rule of law & undermine the results of any investigation (and trial).

3/ Persuade people that all politicians are corrupt, particularly opponents. If people believe this, indicting Trump becomes political persecution. Dershowitz reinforced this when he said all campaigns violate finance laws. 

4/ This is a variation of the “Deep State” defense: The whole system is corrupt. All of our institutions are rotten and scary, so we can’t believe anything that comes out of them. It’s not the person on trial who is guilty. It’s the court.

5/ Undermine factuality by telling outrageous lies. Keep changing your story while your press (Fox etc.) acts like its normal.  People who aren’t paying close attention get confused. His critics are kept busy playing Whack-a-Lie (like Whack-a-Mole).

6/ Replace Rule of Law with Cult of Leadership.   From Paxton: The followers believe the Leader’s instincts are superior to the rational logic used by “elites” Leaders don’t follow laws. They embody the mythic destiny of the nation. They are the law.

7/ “Yeah but . . . when he gets indicted!” We have a presumption of innocence: Innocent until proven guilty in court. A Trump Trial would be a media circus. Think of this tweet as part of an intensive effort to massively pollute the jury pool

8/ “We’ll elect a House that will impeach him!” you say. Impeachment requires a majority of the House. But removal from office (basically a finding of guilt) requires 2/3 of the Senate. Senate Trials are media circuses played out mostly in the Court of Public Opinion.

9/ I believe it entirely possible that 2/3 of the Senate will vote to remove— if the evidence and public opinion is strong enough. Trump is focussed on the public opinion part by trying to hold his 40%. (If 40% of the Senate holds out, he’s safe)

10/ Last but not least: Move quickly to fascism. For Trump, the lesson of the family separation debacle wasn’t that they went too far, in separating families, but rather: “we need to be smarter if we want to implement something on this scale” again.

11/ IOW, he sees himself in the early trial-and-error stage of implementing fascist-type cruelties on minority populations. Now they’re revoking citizenship of Americans of Hispanic descent  They want to get rid of birthright citizenship.

12/ The Trump admin is moving much faster than the Nazis, who waited years before allowing the people to see cruelty like Trump’s border separation policy. He’s racing with Mueller: With the investigation finish before he institutes full on fascism?

13/ Will he win? Of course not. This isn’t Russia. Our institutions are much stronger. But you can stop having anxiety wondering what terrible things Trump will do—because he’s already doing them.

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