Will Trump get away with this latest outrage? [The Whistleblower scandal]
Answer: It depends
Spoiler: It looks to me like lots of Trump critics are giving the Republican leadership a good reason to continue shielding Trump.
“What?” you ask.
Stick with me here.
I’ll say at the outset that the whistleblower case is exactly what the drafters of the Constitution had in mind for an offense worth of impeachment and removal. It’s also similar to other behavior we’ve seen from Trump. It’s not a one-off.
Evidently one of the phone calls the whistleblower reported occurred a day after Mueller testified.
I take it that Trump felt confident that he had enough allies who he viewed as loyal enough to protect him.
He was thus emboldened.
Remember, Trump demands loyalty.
I also take it to mean that when the House impeaches, if the Senate then acquits, Trump will be even more emboldened.
Once Articles of Impeachment are drawn up, it will be hard (probably impossible) for the House to conduct any more impeachment hearings or inquiries.
If Article of Impeachment are drawn up, and the Senate acquits, I don’t think the House can say “Wait! Let’s do it again! We have even more evidence.”
Legally they can probably impeach (meaning vote on Articles of Impeachment) repeatedly.
But Senate trials are a big deal. As a political matter, I don’t think we get do-overs.
Actually impeaching—drawing up the Articles of Impeachment—should happen at the end of the investigation.
It seems to me that acquittal in the Senate may actually embolden Trump. Plus, if House investigations are effectively over, Trump becomes untouchable.
I don’t see how anyone can argue that an impeachment, followed by an acquittal in the Senate will stop the lawbreaking.
That’s why I say that Trump is only part of the problem. The other part is that he is being shielded by a major political party.
There is a strange thing happening on Twitter. (I’m not sure it’s happening everywhere.)
Each time Trump does something outrageous, everyone slams the Democratic leadership.
I have a hard time wrapping my mind around it. If you stop to think about it, it’s bizarre. The House is trying to conduct oversight. They’re being stonewalled at every turn. But people slam the people being stonewalled for not doing enough.
Look how well this works: Whenever Trump does something scandalous, everyone attacks Pelosi.
I think we should keep in mind that the blame falls squarely on House Republican leadership for stonewalling the investigations and outright support of this president’s behavior?
The question is: How bad would a Trump scandal have to be for Republicans to support impeachment?
So far, nothing that has come to light will sway Republican leadership to stop shielding Trump. If you don’t believe nothing so far has swayed the GOP leadership, watch last week’s Lewandowski hearing.
My personal hope has been that something comes to light from these investigations that will cause even the GOP leadership to stop shielding Trump.
Because until that happens, we’re stuck with Trump until 2021.
The drafters of the Constitution deliberately made it hard to remove a sitting president.
Requiring 2/3 vote in the Senate, followed by impeachment in the House, means that a sitting president cannot actually be removed without broad popular support.
The Democrats are doing things the long way and the hard way, pushing to get the ALL evidence.
Lots of people are attacking the law-followers and the Constitution-respecters. Who does that help?
Trump’s Legal Defenses
Part of why Trump is emboldened is that he’s confident in his legal defenses.
Spoiler: He isn’t planning a traditional legal defense. How do I know? You can’t plan a traditional defense while thumbing your nose at the law.
Instead, he intends to defend himself with the “deep state” defense, declaring himself a victim, and undermining truth by unleashing a Firehose of Falsehoods.
I believe Trump feels confident that the well-oiled Trump-Fox-Right Wing Media Propaganda Loop is well-oiled and ready to go with their “defenses.”
Defense #1: The Deep State Defense, which goes like this: The government is stuffed with Trump haters who are doing all they can to bring bring Trump down.
In fact, government is staffed with people trying to uphold rule of law in the face of Trump’s lawlessness. The “deep state” are the regulatory and law enforcement agencies.
The far right wing and reactionaries hate these regulatory and law enforcement agencies.
The current GOP is a reactionary party.
The way to go backwards is to dismantle all of those regulations and regulatory agencies, which (in the view of the far right wing) prevents [white] men from doing whatever they want. They call it “interfering with personal liberty.”
A lot Trump’s crimes are things the Right Wing doesn’t believe should be crimes. So they see nothing wrong. What do I mean? click here.
The “Deep State” defense is related to the “We Are Victims” defense.
Reactionaries believe something vital is being taken away from them. That’s why they see themselves as victims. For more, click here.
The GOP will also any Trump supporters who suffer consequences as victims. Defense #2: The Democrats Did Worse. It looks like this:
The idea is to make the Democrats look like the Republicans. If there is no difference, it doesn’t matter who you vote for, or IF you vote.
If all politicians are corrupt liars, you may as well stick with your team’s liar. “He’s a liar, but he’s OUR liar.”
Defense #2: The Firehose of Falsehoods.
Undermining truth is the time-honored way of securing total power.
Without truth you can’t have rule of law. We know how to fight the Firehose of Falsehoods in the public sphere. For more on that, click here.
Be prepared: When the GOP Senators control the trial of Trump, they will unleash a firehose of falsehoods on the court.
People will get confused. It will be impossible to counter each lie. A liar has an advantage: He can reel off several lies in a minute. Refuting each can take hours.
Playing whack-a-lie wears everyone out.
The liar can also make the story compelling and good soundbites. The truth is nuanced, often less compelling, and doesn’t fit as well into soundbites.
I hear people say, “When hearings are televised, as in Watergate, the American people will see the truth.
I have doubts. We may see a confusing spectacle.
Plus Trump has Fox. John Dean has said that Nixon might have survived if he’d had Fox News.
My point: Unrealistic expectations about what will happen when Trump is impeached and the Senate holds a trial abound.
And unrealistic expectations are dangerous.
When hearings don’t look like an episode of Perry Mason (OK I dated myself) people will blame the Democrats.
When unrealistic expectations aren’t met, people may become cynical.
Cynicism kills democracy.
Remember that a goal of Russian Active measures is to undermine confidence in democracy.
It’s important to see that GOP tactics come from desperation. The GOP base is shrinking, so their long and medium prospects are dim. Republicans are fleeing the party.
The demographics of the Democratic Party (diverse, intellectual, urban, progressive) are expanding.
The future belongs to the Democrats—if they hold steady as the party of democratic values.
Wanna know what you can do to help?
- Don’t spread gloom and doom. It undermines confidence in democracy.
- Do pressure your reps. We all want more on board with impeachment. But this isn’t the time to slam Democrats. For why some Democrats are reluctant to embrace impeachment, see this tweet.
- Don’t spread unrealistic expectations, which leads to disillusionment, which in turn undermines confidence in democracy.
- Most important: Get busy. See my list.
