After the news broke last week that 45 Republican Senators voted against holding an impeachment trial for Trump and it thus appeared that the GOP would close ranks around Trump again (thereby hardening into an extremist anti-democratic party) one of my followers said this:
I believe the future of democracy would be far better served by Trump being convicted by the Senate, losing his perks as a former president, and being forbidden to run again than criminal prosecution of Trump.
I have no doubt that Trump will be prosecuted for at least some of his crimes.
My worry is that people think this will save democracy or provide some kind of instant solution to the GOP lawbreaking.
However, this is not an instant solution. Consider:
- There is a higher standard of proof in a criminal trial.
- Getting an impartial jury will be hard, and holdout jurors are a distinct possibility.
- Prosecuting without convicting can backfire.
- Conviction won’t loosen the support of his supporters. They are immune to truth.
Trump will say the jury was filled with Democrats. The GOP will say the prosecutions are revenge and authoritarian. While some locations have a better chance at a jury that will be willing to convict, it isn’t like prosecutors pick the jury. There is a procedure. Jury selection is partly random, and the defense also shapes the jury. Some jurisdiction require an unanimous decision for a criminal conviction, which won’t be easy in a highly politicized trial.
The conviction for Manafort was secured partly because the evidence was almost entirely documentary. When the evidence is testimonial, the jury decides who to believe. I think this explains why Manafort was charged with financial crimes, which can be proven with documents, making it much harder for a jury to go against the weight of the evidence.
It’s not like a gutsy prosecutor can bring charges and POOF the GOP will melt like the Wicked Witch and Trump will lose his grip on the Qanon people and Fox will start reporting the truth.
The problem with thinking that prosecuting Trump will somehow save the Republic is that when it doesn’t, people fall into doomsaying.
Because it’s looking more like the GOP Senators will close ranks around Trump and refuse to convict him for inciting an insurrection, we’re moving toward a prediction I made a while ago: The two political parties will cease being liberal v. conservative (left v. right) and instead, will be democracy v. anti-democracy.
What will strengthen democracy?
- Reform the courts.
- Make D.C. a state (this will add 2 more Democratic Senators)
- End gerrymandering
- Find a way to stop / slow the spread of lies.
- Elect more Democrats
- More civil engagement at all levels.
