. . . and WHAT WE CAN DO ABOUT IT
Preliminary matter: Yes, Trump can win if he persuades a majority of voters to vote for him (or comes within 3 points of the winner and secures an electoral college victory.)
Here are some scenarios that we know are going to happen, or very well could happen. (On a separate page I have the unlikely catastrophizing).
#2: There will be widespread voter suppression.
#4: Trump will stoke violence and create chaos with a view to disrupting the election.
#5: The Successful Strongman Con: Overestimating Trump.
#6: Trump will attempt to delegitimize the results of the election
#7: There is synergy between #1 – #6: They play off each other and reinforce each other.
For less likely scenarios, click here.
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#1: More People Will Vote For Trump
This is my #1 worry. The solution is work on getting everyone to the polls who prefers Biden. Elections often hinge on turnout.
I am an avid reader of the polls. My first campaign volunteer experience was in college when I did internal polling for the Carter campaign. I have been reading polls ever since. I am not a mathematician, but I understand about methods and margins of error.
On one hand, it’s heartening that a majority of Americans prefer Biden. On the other, it’s discouraging that more than 40% prefer Trump.
One way democracies die is if the people no longer want a democracy. If a majority of voters go to the polls and vote for a person who promises to create an autocracy, we will have an autocracy.
I believe in democracy. Therefore, I believe in the power of majorities. The paradox is that I also believe that a majority can decide to abolish democracy.
The antidote is to get out there and work on this election like you’ve never worked before. Need ideas? Click here.
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#2: There will be widespread vote suppression
Very few people are arguing that Trump will persuade a majority of people to vote for him. The demographics of the GOP are shrinking and aging. The GOP tends to win, not because they have a majority, but because of advantages in Senate apportioning, an electoral college advantage, gerrymandering. and voter suppression.
We can expect widespread voter suppression between now and the election.
Voter Suppression is not new: We’ve had voter suppression since the start of the nation. What the Republicans are trying to do now (suppress minority votes) wasn’t called cheating in the past because it was legal.
Voter suppression takes many forms, including but not limited to:
- Causing people to lose confidence in the voting system, so they don’t bother voting because they think their votes won’t matter.
- Literal intimidation at the polling places.
- Making it harder for people to vote by adding additional (cumbersome) steps.
- Effective disinformation campaign spreading lies about the process or Democratic candidates.
- Doing things like regularly purging the voter rolls of those likely to vote Democratic.
Educating and motivating voters to overcome hurdles is the only answer.
At this fundraiser (held remotely on August 12) someone asked Kamala Harris the best way to respond to this administration’s widespread voter intimidation.
She said, “I view it as a challenge,” and then added that Americans are “strong” enough to go around whatever barriers Trump erects.
From Adam Schiff:
If you’re worried, get busy. Need ideas? Click here.
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#3: A FIREHOSE OF FALSEHOODS WILL DRENCH AND CONFUSE AMERICAN VOTERS.
Here is a sampling of the kinds of lies to expect:
- The DOJ has evidence that Obama and his administration committed crimes when they “spied” on Trump’s campaign.
- There is evidence that the Bidens behaved corruptly in Ukraine.
- There is widespread voter fraud (this is different from voter suppression. This means people cheat by voting multiple times, stuff ballot boxes, etc.)
The Firehose of Falsehoods: What is it?
The Firehose of Falsehood is a Russian propaganda technique. The Internet, social media, and amateur journalism outlets increases the effectiveness.
The Firehose of Falsehoods is “rapid and continuous” stream of lies.
Here’s the part that’s key: The liar has a “shameless willingness” to tell outrageous lies that everyone knows are lies. The liar doesn’t care about consistency. He doesn’t care if it’s obvious he’s lying. In fact, that’s the whole point. The more shameless the better.
Timothy Snyder tells how reporters were often so astonished by Putin’s outrageous (and deliberate) lies, that they focused on the lies instead of Putin’s latest atrocities. The lies became the news. The actual news was pushed off the stage.
The goal is the “disruption of truthful reporting and messaging.”
Trump’s supporters know he is lying. They love the lies because they know the lies destroy. For more on that, see my Slate article here.
How do we combat the Firehose of Falsehoods?
From the Rand study: While we must refute the falsehoods, “retractions and refutations are seldom effective.”
“Don’t expect to counter the Firehose of Falsehood with a squirt gun of truth.”(p.9)
Instead put on raincoats. If people expect to be drenched in lies, they can better withstand the effects.
The next step is to counter the effects of the lies.
The effect of Trump’s lies is to undermine and destroy democracy. So we move quickly to strengthen democracy.
The worst thing we can do is become cynical—because Trump is trying to draw you into cynicism.
Keep grounded in facts. Don’t retweet or repeat speculation. If an argument goes like this, beware:
- Here’s how Trump could cheat and get away with it. First, he could X. Then he might Y. If both of these things happen, we could see B and then PRESTO TRUMP SUCCESSFULLY CHEATS
See the problem with the above? Speculation piled on hypotheticals piled on unlikely scenarios increases the chaos people experienc
“It’s too late!” Or “there’s nothing we can do” are the death knells of democracy. The whole point of Active Measures is to get people to lose faith in democracy.
Operation Ukraine Shakedown was launched shortly after the 2018 midterms, when the Democrats won be more than 8 percentage points and Trump could see he was in trouble. Had the Operation succeeded, we would have “learned” that Ukraine, on its own, launched an investigation into Biden corruption. This could have been devastating for the election.
But Trump got caught. The operation failed. Yes, the Republicans are still trying to push this narrative, but it has lost steam.
This illustrates the way to combat lies: Prepare and thereby inoculate the population for them.
Americans are more prepared now to withstand disinformation campaigns because we know so much more now than we did in 2016.
For more on what to what to do about a Firehose of Falsehoods is here.
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#4: Trump will Stoke Violence and Create Chaos
A ploy of would-be autocrats is to create violence, and then claim to be the person who can save the nation from the violence.
Since the start of the George Floyd / BLM protests, rightwing extremists have infiltrated the protests and created violence.
People not paying close attention can’t tell who is responsible. The confusion gives Trump visuals to back up the lies.
Fascists need enemies. In the midterms, the “scary enemies” were the homeless migrants at the border. That didn’t work out so well for Trump, so now he’s trying a new enemy: The Democrats, BLM protestors, and liberals.
Because it’s a lie, it’s another stream in the Firehose of Falsehoods. The goal is to confuse people, get Trump voters to the polls by scaring them, and scare would-be Biden voters.
The antidotes: Don’t contribute to the chaos, and prepare the population that this is coming.
If you protest, don’t allow yourself to be provoked into a fight. If you have a camera, film violence or lawbreaking so that the blame can be appropriately placed.
Also under this heading is the Post Office Chaos.
Here is where Trump admitted that he’s sabotaging the post office as a way to undermine the election:
A bit of history: When the pandemic hit, states and voter activist groups immediately took steps for voters to vote by mail (absentee). Vote by mail solves a host of problems, including eliminating electronic voting machines, creating a paper trail, and making voter suppression more difficult.
Initially Trump tried to dissuade people from voting by mail by saying fraud is rampant with vote by mail (absentee). But then he realized (1) he couldn’t stop the trend toward vote by mail and (2) he was discouraging his own voters from voting (oops).
He’s evidently decided that the best way to sabotage vote by mail is to cripple the Post Office. This goes along with the GOP desire to dismantle the federal government and privatize the post office. (Click here to read about what the Constitution says about the post office.)
To counter the lies:
- If you can vote early, do so.
- If you can vote absentee, get your ballot as soon as possible, and then strategize the best way to submit your ballot for counting.
In some states, you can take your ballot to a polling place during early voting or on Election Day. Other states have secure ballot drop boxes.
We will have a problem if millions of people wait until the last few weeks to request their ballots. The mail system will get jammed and people won’t get their ballots. They’ll have to go to the polls and cancel their absentee ballot. This will create long lines and Election Day chaos.
Trump’s attack on the post office will also (1) destroy small businesses that rely on the mail (2) harm people who rely on the mail for prescription drugs and (3) harm rural areas that have no other options.
Thus the idea could backfire by making Trump even more unpopular while savvy Democrats adroitly sidestep the mail.
Remember what happened to the Wisconsin GOP when they tried to win an election by creating pain for voters? See this Twitter thread if you forgot.
Because if Trump creates one crisis, we (including Congress and the media) can deal with it. People can act and respond. If he creates dozens, nobody can focus. So he creates dozens. He does it because it helps him. It also wears everyone else out, discourages them, and helps with the Strongman Con.
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#5: The Strongman Con: OVERESTIMATING TRUMP
“I am an invincible strongman” is one of the great cons of every dictator or would-be dictator.
Trump is first and foremost a conman. One of his most successful cons is to persuade people that he has almost superhuman powers.
Most of the catastrophizing questions I get on Twitter attribute almost superhuman powers to Trump and his supporters, like: “What if DeJoy destroys millions of Democratic ballots before they arrive?” Just imagine the postmaster doing that without anyone finding out.
This tells me Trump is succeeding with his con. It’s a dangerous con. It’s important not to underestimate Trump and Putin. They are dangerous. It’s also important not to overestimate them. Both overestimating and underestimating require a departure from reality.
Truth is the antidote to fascism. The way to counter a fascist uprising is to stay grounded in the truth. Overestimating Trump attributes superpowers to him, which elevates him in the eyes of his followers, which strengthens the leadership cult.
Thomas Rid, an expert in Russian disinformation tactics, said that the extent of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election was “designed to be overestimated.”
Putin wants to be overestimated. That way he’s feared and has more power.
Trump has built a cult following based on the promise that he’s a strongman and can take on and defeat the ‘enemies’ of America (where enemies are liberals, Democrats, and anyone who criticizes Trump).
Each time Trump does something outrageous and everyone has a panic meltdown, his followers see the meltdown and think, “WOW TRUMP IS ALL POWERFUL” When we overestimate him, we help him with his con. Don’t do it. Stay grounded in facts and reality.
The Firehose of Falsehoods, the Strongman Con, the endless chaos and violence are all designed to make people lose touch with reali\ty, so that you feel this way:
When factuality is cleared away, fascism can take hold.
Yes, Trump is dangerous. No, he doesn’t have the ability or resources (for example) to pull off a full-blown military coup. Nor can he (or Putin) flip 30 million votes across multiple states and thousands of polling places without being detected. Don’t pretend they can.
This is an example of buying into the Strong Man Con:
This person is implying that Trump can flip millions of votes and get away with it, which implies that he can make himself dictator. If this were true, why would anyone bother voting?
Why are smart people who know how government works—like Obama, Biden, Kamala Harris, and HRC—urging people to vote if none of it will matter because Trump can flip millions of votes, get away with it, and steal the election?
Q: Who wants you to believe that voting doesn’t matter because it’s rigged, so you shouldn’t bother? (Extra credit if you get the right answer.)
Confession: Social media catastrophizing wears me out and makes me testy. It’s also destructive.
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#6: TRUMP WILL ATTEMPT TO DELEGITIMIZE THE ELECTION
This can only work if the election is close, or if Trump creates so much chaos that most Americans lose confidence in the process.
Remember that a goal of active measures is to “undermine democracy, to make Americans lose confidence in democratic institutions.” When enough people lose confidence in democratic processes, it’s all over. That’s why Trump is trying so hard to get you to lose confidence.
On the bright side, the polls right now are not indicating a close race. That could change. Make sure the election will not be close by getting busy. See my to do list here.
Elections are conducted and monitored locally, and results are certified by Secretaries of State. Once states totally 270 electoral votes for Biden are certified, Biden wins.
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#7: There is synergy between #1 – #6: They play off each other and reinforce each other.
When people buy into the Strongman Con, they panic, and then spread the word that OMG Trump and Putin can easily steal this election, which helps Trump delegitimize the election.
When Trump delegitimizes the election, people lose confidence, think their vote won’t matter, don’t vote and then Trump wins.
And yes, if you go around telling people that Trump has the election fixed and there’s nothing we can do because he and Putin can flip millions of votes and nobody will know YOU WILL DISCOURAGE PEOPLE FROM VOTING.
Sorry for the all caps 😉 I don’t yell often.
There are vulnerable communities that remember when they were kept from the polls. Tell them their votes won’t count and many will believe you.
There is a fine line between healthy concern that motivates people to get involved, and despair-mongering that makes people give up.
The problem with catastrophizing is if you’re spending your time worrying about unlikely worst-case scenarios, you can’t solve the very real problems we have in front of us. If we’re not solving the real problems we know about, they won’t get solved and Trump will win.
So stay out of what-if rabbit holes. Here’s how to tell if you’re being led down a rabbit hole. An argument looks like this:
First, X might happen. Then Y could happen. If both of these things happen, we could see B, and then PRESTO: Trump steals the election!
See the problem? Speculation piled on hypotheticals removes us from what is actually happening. Stay grounded. Going down rabbit holes dovetails with Firehose of Falsehoods because when dealing with compound hypotheticals, you’ve left the world of facts.
Remember: The antidote to fascism is to stay anchored in truth and reality.
I made a separate page for the unlikely, catastrophizing questions that I get regularly. It’s here.
[View Part I as a Twitter thread]
