To prepare for what’s coming, here’s brief roundup of my posts on impeachment, followed by questions and my answers. I selected the questions I get most often.
Spoiler: The real question right now is whether the GOP will continue to shield Trump, or whether the Biden-Ukraine scandal is the tipping point.
To prepare for what’s coming, see my Slate Magazine article, “Why Trump Supporters Believe [or pretend to believe] Every Lie He Tells.
For more on what you can expect moving forward and from the Trump-FOX-GOP, see this thread on Trump’s “legal” defenses”
The Trump-FOX-GOP is not afraid of a trial in the Senate because they’re not afraid of facts.
See this post called Impeachment 201: The Advanced Course for a rundown of how impeachment works.
There has long been a disconnect between what Nancy Pelosi says, and what people say she says. We slam the other side for distorting facts. So let’s not. Let’s listen to her exact words, and consider them, here.
There’s also been a lack of understanding WHY so many House Democrats haven’t gotten behind impeachment. Laura Underwood now supports Impeachment, but in an interview, discussed here, she explains why (as of a few weeks ago) she didn’t.
Also see this NPR report.
In a nutshell, reluctant Dems tended to be elected in heavily red or swing districts BECAUSE they promised to go to D.C. to work on healthcare (or whatever issue was important to their constituents).
Many of their constituents are lifelong Republicans making the switch. As of 2018, their constituents didn’t want to hear about Russia, Mueller, or impeachment.
These representatives didn’t say No Impeachment; they said, “We’re here to get other things done.” As far as impeachment, they emphasized the process and procedure.
They have to bring their constituents along with them.
This takes work.
Democracy takes work.
They want to feel forced by something so egregious that even their constituents will agree that it’s time.
Elected government works that way.
This is really, really important: Steven Levitsky is a Harvard prof and the author of How Democracies Die and an expert on what kills democracy.
There are obviously important lessons here. See this blog post on the dangers of playing Constitutional hardball.
Levitsky says playing hardball kills democracy. If you want to see what hardball looks like, watch the Lewandowski hearing. It’s here.
The Republicans played hardball.
The Democrats behaved as if they were conducting a fair hearing in a democracy.
The people urging Dems to play hardball tend to be the same people slamming Pelosi.
For the people who have been judging Pelosi harshly, it’s important to remember that impeachment as described the constitution is discretionary, not a duty.
The House cannot and should not impeach at the first sign of lawbreaking or wrong doing. The way power to impeach and remove is allocated in the Constitution makes clear that the drafters intended the remedies to be used only when the president exhibited behavior so egregious that impeachment and removal would have broad popular support. (That’s why, for example, 2/3 removal is required in the Senate)
Lincoln suspended the writ of habeas corpus. Andrew Jackson thumbed his nose at a Supreme Court ruling (Worcester v. Georgia). I could fill a thread with “impeachable offenses” committed by American presidents.
What the Democrats needed (and wanted) was to be able to say what Rep. John Lewis said this morning:
Impeachment is a Big Deal.
Removal is a Huge, Enormous, History-Changing Deal. No president has ever been removed through this process.
Pelosi and the representatives from swing districts wanted to be able to say “we tried every other available means.”
Now for some questions I get frequently. Eric asked:
The answer has to address two parts:
- (1) Can McConnell do this?
- (2) Would McConnell do this?
Whether he CAN depends on how we read a phrase from the Constitution. Like all legal questions, the answer is “maybe.” For a full breakdown, see this Lawfare article.
As far as (2) I don’t see why McConnell or the Trump-FOX-GOP would do this. See my thread above “Trump’s Legal Defenses.” If the GOP continues shielding Trump, I think they would welcome the national platform to declare Trump “completely exonerated.”
There would be grandstanding and speech making. They will “prove” that the real villains are the Biden, Comey, and the Deep State operators trying to bring down Poor Victim Trump.
So the real question is whether the GOP will stand behind Trump now, or decide they’d rather have President Pence.
Is the Biden-Ukraine scandal the tipping point for the GOP? That, my dearies, is the question.
Tom asked:
Constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe says it’s possible, and even suggested it.
I see this as problematic, with the potential of looking like a partisan trick.
Remember Mueller talked about why he didn’t want to indict a sitting president? While the question of whether a president can be indicted is debated among constitutional scholars, it’s pretty clear that the trial would have to wait until the president left office.
Mueller didn’t like the idea of accusing someone without the person having a chance to clear his name in a trial. Mueller implied that he left the question to Congress because only Congress can hold the trial.
Impeaching and denying a trial in the Senate seems equally problematic to me from fairness / due process perspective.
Barbara asked:
There’s an outside chance the GOP will remove Trump, if they decide he’s poison and they’re better off with Pence.
But would they remove both Pence and Trump and install President Pelosi?
Legally it could happen. Politically? Don’t think so.
Honey said:
It’s hard to see that happening given everything we know about Trump. I expect him to fight to the last, but I suppose anything is possible.
Nixon could resign in peace to his estate. Trump can’t. His estate is under siege: The NY AG is after him. The NY DA is after him. He’s [probably] heavily in debt.
Sadie said:
I think Pelosi was waiting for the right moment when she’d be able to get the nation behind her.
She wanted to sidestep accusations of partisanship, and marshall a majority, not just of Democrats.
What has seemed crystal clear to some that Trump has committed a list of impeachable offenses, hasn’t been clear to most Americans.
She needed it clear to everyone.
I’ll admit I was a wee bit nervous yesterday when she drew a line in the sand and basically said, “we’ll get the whistleblower complaint by Thurs or else.”
Or else what?
I don’t exactly know how she did it—but it sure looks like she’ll get what she demanded.
I heard for the first time that the Ukranian government complained to Congress from a Representative Ted Lieu tweet:
Seems like something has been going on behind the scenes for a while, which may be why Pelosi knew she could draw that line in the sand.
