[Note: I was working on this when the Parnas Document Dump happened, so I set this aside. I’ll post this now, and then later today post a thread on the Parnas docs. I’m currently doing that work on Twitter. So you’ll get two posts today.]
Cynicism is as destructive and dangerous as lying from the far right wing. Cynicism can kill democracy as quickly as any form of right-wing propaganda.
This morning I retweeted this article:
I added: “A trial is coming! If Bolton testifies. . .” and did a picture of a bomb. I was hit in the comments by a wave of cynicism. Here are a few samples:
I deleted the tweet, and posted this thread:
There will be a Senate trial. Before you comment, I want to say a word about
- cynicism and
- unrealistic expectations.
Both are dangerous. Cynicism is a feature of MAGA thinking, and Putin politics and policies. Cynicism leads to political nihilism.
Putin stays in power in Russia by promoting a form of cynicism and nihilism. Us. v Them politics is based on cynicism (all political leaders lie, so you may as well stick with our liar instead of the enemy liar)
Cynicism says:
- “Why bother watching the trial?”
- “Why bother voting? The whole thing will be rigged anyway.”
- It doesn’t matter who we vote for. They’re all liars.
Unrealistic expectations leads to cynicism. In fact, most of the cynicism I see on the left seems to be coming from unrealistic expectations.
Rule of Law doesn’t mean that all lawbreakers end up in jail. Trials don’t always go the way they should go. Not all liars are “punished.”
The antidote to cynicism and political nihilism is to hold on to your ideals. At the same time, keep your expectations realistic.
Pelosi and McConnell have been maneuvering over the kind of trial we will have. McConnell first wanted to dismiss the articles before Christmas. When he couldn’t do that, he wanted a trial without witnesses.
This is a long game. If you think the trial will end by Trump being led away in handcuffs, you are indulging in an unrealistic fantasy. The chances of Trump being convicted by 2/3 of the Republican-led Senate has always been slim.
We have a situation in the United States in which a minority of the population has the majority of power.
The goal is to change that. Minority rule isn’t new in the US. (Slavery, Jim Crow, women as chattel)
The antidote to unrealistic expectations is to stay grounded in reality.
One of my followers on Twitter said:
Personally I think social media beats people up. You all know it was much worse in the past. Think of being a black woman in 1850. The idealists and reformers in the 19th century marched on in the face of much worse conditions.
Exactly. He or she didn’t say, “Why bother? What’s the point?”
McConnell now wants to persuade Americans not to follow the trial. He wants you to think it will be dull and meaningless.
Let’s not help him. Americans need to watch it all, even the lying.
There are three possible outcomes to a Senate trial. When we examine them, it’s clear why McConnell wants to deep-six a trial.
Possibility #1:
- Enough GOP Senators vote against Trump and remove him from office.
This is highly unlikely. If it happens, Trump supporters will turn on the GOP, splintering the GOP.
The only way Trump’s removal holds the GOP together is if Trump leaves voluntarily and throws his support behind Pence.
Do you think Trump would do that?Me, neither. He’s not the type. Plus, he’s in legal jeopardy in New York state, so a pardon can’t help him.
Second possibility:
- A handful of Senators vote against Trump, but not enough to remove him from office
This too will (1) enrage Trump’s supporters & divide the GOP and (2) make Trump’s crimes clear to swing voters.
The GOP is currently a minority party. It has fewer members than the Democratic party. Its demographics are shrinking. The GOP cannot afford to splinter.
Third possibility:
- The GOP sticks together and GOP Senators line up behind Trump.
This is the GOP’s best chance for survival: They hold their 40% together and try to expand the numbers.
This is their best chance of survival.
But it isn’t a great option, particularly if it’s clear to voters in places like Maine, Colorado, and Alaska that their Senators voted to acquit despite evidence of guilt.
Another possible outcome: The Senate votes to censure instead of remove.
I can’t see where this helps the GOP
Censure is a finding of guilt. How can they censure him, and then support him for re-election?
In the movies, trials are thrilling. In real life, not so much.
Keep your eye on the larger goal: A big win in November, can bring rapid change.
[View the first part as a Twitter thread]
[View the second part as a Twitter thread]
