(Spoiler: The Whistleblower Case May Be Their Shot)
Ruthie, thank you. I’ve been trying to explain this for a while.
Remember when Nancy Pelosi suggested that Trump was trying to goad the House into impeaching him. Chris Hayes suggested the idea was insane.
I argued that Trump wanted it all over then, before all the evidence was uncovered.
What do I mean by “all over?” The process is analogous to a criminal indictment.
Bonus: This blog post will help with the Criminal Law and Constitutional Law portions of your Twitter Bar Exam.
Here’s the 4-step process (criminal):
- Law enforcement investigates. They gather the evidence.
- The prosecutor decides whether to prosecute.
Newsflash: Every crime can’t possibly be prosecuted. Prosecutors decide based on a host of factors. For more on the important institution of prosecutorial discretion, click here.
- If the decision is to indict, the prosecutor files an indictment.
- The defendant gets a trial (a chance to prove he’s innocent)
Now, for impeachment.
- First there’s an investigation. The House gathers the evidence.
The House started gathering evidence in March, and called it an impeachment inquiry on 9-7-19.
It has been going slowly because Trump is using all the powers of his office to stonewall (the legal term is “obstruct”) the inquiry.
(Bonus: Stonewalling the inquiry is also an impeachable offense. I expect the stonewalling to be included in the Articles of Impeachment.)
- When the Judiciary Committee is ready, the committee members vote on Resolutions (or Articles) of Impeachment. This is like drafting the indictment.
The Articles of Impeachment are then presented to the full House for a vote.
- If a majority votes yes, the president is then impeached.
It’s done. Fireworks. It happened. This is a Big. Deal. It has only happened twice in our entire history. (Nixon resigned before he could be impeached, so count 3)
- The matter then goes to the Senate for a trial.
When the matter goes to the Senate, the House is finished with its work. Trump gets a trial in the Senate—a chance to “prove” his innocence.
The GOP controls the Senate.
A Senate Trial is a Huge. Big. Deal.
For what to expect, click here.
So far, nothing has come to light that would cause the Republican Senators to remove this president.
The Republicans control the Senate.
Trump owns the GOP. The Senate would seize the opportunity of a trial to have a national platform to clear the president of wrongdoing State targeting Trump, the Poor Victim.
They’d flood the headlines with their theories and confuse everyone.
“But,” you ask “can’t the House keep impeaching when they get new evidence?”
As a legal matter, the House can probably impeach each time new evidence emerges. Imagine this:
- The FBI investigates.
- The Prosecutor indicts.
- There’s a trial.
- The defendant is found not guilty.
The prosecutor says, “I have new evidence! I’m filing a new indictment!”
The person has a second trial. He’s found not guilty again. The prosecutor says “Wait! I have new evidence!”
What would you think after several trials?
Exactly.
This is what the “Impeach Right NOW” people haven’t understood.
The House really only has one shot.
It looks like the Ukraine-Biden-Whistelblower incident could be such a red hot smoking gun that it will be all they need to topple Trump. But they have to make sure.
Because they can’t throw away their shot.
OK, so. Who are the Impeach Right Now people?
I think the Impeach Right Now people call into a few groups:
- People in pain over the current situation and who want the pain to end.
- People who don’t understand the process.
- Pro-Trump bots trying to goad the House into impeaching before they have their hands on the most damning evidence on Trump.
That way Trump can:
- cruise for the next year declaring himself acquitted (it will actually be true)
- be the Strongman who bested the Libs
- and be the victim.
Also consider this group: Those who want to (1) rid of Trump and (2) discredit and weaken the Democratic Party. There are people who want a reactionary agenda without Trump. They think the GOP was perfect until 2016. As they see it, the only problem with the GOP is Trump. Get rid of Trump, and all the GOP fools who were led astray & propped him up will come back to their senses and reboard the Paul Ryan Purity ship, which was blown off course by Trump.
Beware of them. They include some influential conservative personalities.
