[View here as a Twitter thread]
Here’s why I don’t think he’ll do it: 6 reasons. Reason #1: The investigation has gone on too long. The genie can’t go back into the bottle. I’ll explain.
1/ Take a hypothetical: Trump fires Rosenstein & puts in someone who follows his orders. The new person starts firing people says “put an end to the entire investigation.” (I know people will raise hell. I’ll get to that in a minute) Q: What happens to the grand jury evidence?
2/ Spoiler: It doesn’t go away; it belongs to the court. Grand juries (GJ) are in the Constitution, so they’re part of the basic framework of government. See. Originally GJs actually had power to do independent investigations.
4/ IOW, what happens to the evidence now in possession of the GJ is up to the judge and GJ. It’s unlikely they’ll want to bury it. Reason #2: the SC regs allow Mueller to be stopped by his boss only if “a particular step is inappropriate or unwarranted”
5/ Moreover SC can only be fired for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, or for other good cause. As @AshaRangappa_ says, Mueller has more expertise than anyone who might supervise him. Good luck to whoever tries to fire Mueller without good cause.
6/ I know, I know. Worried people will still say, “But what if Trump still tries?” Reason # 3: Mueller can hand off the evidence to other prosecutors. Already evidence from Cohen’s office is in the hands of the SDNY—and Cohen overlaps with TrumpRussia and TrumpCrimes.
7/ Destroying evidence isn’t something prosecutors do. There are lots of state crimes and crimes other federal offices can pursue. Reason #4: If we get a Democratic Congress tomorrow, they can open a real investigation.
9/ Reason #5: Firing people would create an acute crisis. People would take to the streets. There would be an uproar. This isn’t good for Trump. People would stop talking about his manufactured crisis and have a real one to talk about. He prefers made up ones.
10/ The better strategy is to erode democratic institutions and norms so gradually that most people don’t realize what’s happening until it’s too late. Even now, most people don’t know (or deny) that Trump is cynically using classic fascist techniques to seize and hold power.
11/ An acute crisis wakes everyone up. Reason #6: Trump has a more effective way to bring about a regime change: Torpedo factuality and rule of law. What do I mean? See Without rule of law, jury verdicts and investigations pose no threat.
12/ This is why Timothy Snyder says the showdown between Trump and Mueller will be a showdown between “crisis and spectacle” and rule of law. Trump is preparing for that battle. What we should worry about (and try to remedy) is the erosion of the public sphere.
